Sorry, I am not very good at this blog thing. I sold all of my index puts & bear call spread shorts. I also sold some naked IWM puts (Aug 77 at 1.5 avg price). If we keep going down from here I will be losing.
I am working a lot right now with travel to Asia. It is tiring.
Thursday, July 26, 2007
Tuesday, July 17, 2007
wrong way bear
The bearish arguments make a lot of sense to me. Unfortunatly, these bearish ideas make a lot of sense to most folks. Many of the people I know are bearish. I am bearish. That view hasn't worked well for me.
I like to think my trading is agnostic, but it is not. If I get a sell signal, like I just got, I jump on it. If I get a bull signal I look for reasons to ignore it. I even hold some of my beraish spreads despite the bull signal. I am trying to take more bulish trades as they appear.
We will see.
Of course I bought some NDX & RUT Aug. puts as soon as I got my sell signal today (Long NDX Aug 2050 puts &RUT 870 puts).
If my next post is to exit these positions and buy some calls I have changed my pattern of ignoring the positives. With options expiration & earnings the fundies will be more important than my cheezy signals this week.
I like to think my trading is agnostic, but it is not. If I get a sell signal, like I just got, I jump on it. If I get a bull signal I look for reasons to ignore it. I even hold some of my beraish spreads despite the bull signal. I am trying to take more bulish trades as they appear.
We will see.
Of course I bought some NDX & RUT Aug. puts as soon as I got my sell signal today (Long NDX Aug 2050 puts &RUT 870 puts).
If my next post is to exit these positions and buy some calls I have changed my pattern of ignoring the positives. With options expiration & earnings the fundies will be more important than my cheezy signals this week.
Friday, July 13, 2007
Thursday, July 5, 2007
follow the leader
I need to do a better job of following the indicators I spent soooo much time learning. Common things like MACD, RSI, Stochastics, support & resistance, bollinger bands. Instead I spend time watching the $TICK. My time frame is wrong for the tick. I don't need to care about +-1000 tick reversals and tick hooks. It doesn't matter over a 2 week holding period. That is about my normal holding period.
I held my bear call spreads thinking I could reap some 'free' decay over the holiday. AS usual that was a mistake. The NDX & RUT are still on buy signals. I should have bought some calls.
Now it looks like the market is bailing me out and I expect to be on sell signals soon. But that is not the point. Yes, my signals are often wrong. I do have a positive expectancy if I have the courage and discipline to follow the signals.
One problem with holding positions in opposition to my signals is the exit strategy. My signals give perfectly good exit signals. Now that I am on the wrong side of the trade when do I exit? What is my stop loss? I'll tell you, I don't have a good stop loss if I don't follow my signal.
Sometimes life is tougher if you are stupid.
I held my bear call spreads thinking I could reap some 'free' decay over the holiday. AS usual that was a mistake. The NDX & RUT are still on buy signals. I should have bought some calls.
Now it looks like the market is bailing me out and I expect to be on sell signals soon. But that is not the point. Yes, my signals are often wrong. I do have a positive expectancy if I have the courage and discipline to follow the signals.
One problem with holding positions in opposition to my signals is the exit strategy. My signals give perfectly good exit signals. Now that I am on the wrong side of the trade when do I exit? What is my stop loss? I'll tell you, I don't have a good stop loss if I don't follow my signal.
Sometimes life is tougher if you are stupid.
Monday, July 2, 2007
notes to myself
Need to account for seasonality. Today hurt. Got my very late buy signals. New quarter / half/ holidays tend to be positive. I need to account for that.
Dive, Dive Dive!
I'm back into full money losing mode, er I mean I have my full bear call spreads in place. NDX 1975 (short) 2025 (long) & RUT 850 s 860 s 880 long. As always, the front month to take advantage of decay. Not always the best play FWIW. If I get a buy signal I will cover 1/3 this morning. That seems likely, and I will lose some money on this one.
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