I need to do a better job of following the indicators I spent soooo much time learning. Common things like MACD, RSI, Stochastics, support & resistance, bollinger bands. Instead I spend time watching the $TICK. My time frame is wrong for the tick. I don't need to care about +-1000 tick reversals and tick hooks. It doesn't matter over a 2 week holding period. That is about my normal holding period.
I held my bear call spreads thinking I could reap some 'free' decay over the holiday. AS usual that was a mistake. The NDX & RUT are still on buy signals. I should have bought some calls.
Now it looks like the market is bailing me out and I expect to be on sell signals soon. But that is not the point. Yes, my signals are often wrong. I do have a positive expectancy if I have the courage and discipline to follow the signals.
One problem with holding positions in opposition to my signals is the exit strategy. My signals give perfectly good exit signals. Now that I am on the wrong side of the trade when do I exit? What is my stop loss? I'll tell you, I don't have a good stop loss if I don't follow my signal.
Sometimes life is tougher if you are stupid.
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